SEEK Employment Report - October

• After three months of rises, job ads fell 3.1% 

• Applications per job ad fell for the first time in over two years, down 0.9% m/m*.

• South Australia (1.4%) and Western Australia (0.4%) were the only states to record job ad growth in October. 

• The Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest decline in job ads (-7.8%) followed by Tasmania (-4.0%) and Victoria (-3.9%). 

• Job ads grew in only four industries m/m; Advertising Arts & Media (5.0%), Engineering (2.7%), Design & Architecture (1.4%) and Banking & Financial Services (0.2%). 

• Retail & Consumer Products (-8.8%) recorded the largest decline m/m. 

*Applications per job ad are recorded with a one-month lag. Data shown in this report refers to September data.

Dr Blair Chapman, SEEK Senior Economist, says

“The rate of decline in job ads has slowed over the past year, however October’s 3% drop indicates that uncertainty in the labour market remains.

“Demand for Retail & Consumer Products workers led the overall fall in job ads in October. The decline in worker demand comes as household spending is growing slowly, indicating subdued consumer activity at this late stage of the year.

“After 26 months of steady growth, applications per job ad declined in September, but remain extremely elevated. So while the market remains relatively tight, competition among candidates is also very strong.” 

After three months of marginal growth, job ads declined in October, falling 3.1%, and are now down 0.1% q/q.

Volumes are very similar to the pre-COVID 2019 average, and y/y the decline in job ads has slowed considerably over the past 12 months. 

Applications per job ad, which have been growing consistently for over two years, fell slightly in September, dropping just 0.9%. 

Aside from South Australia (1.4%) and Western Australia (0.4%) job ads fell in all states and territories in October. In Western Australia, rises in Government & Defence (31.7%) and Engineering (18.9%) roles drove the increase. In South Australia rising demand for Information & Communication Technology (14.4%) Hospitality & Tourism (9.4%) workers resulted in the overall growth for the state. 

The largest m/m decline was in the Australian Capital Territory (-7.8%) predominantly due to a drop in Government & Defence (-11.0%) and Information & Communication Technology (-9.2%) job ads. 

Ad volumes fell in Victoria (-3.9%) and New South Wales (-3.2%) and in both cases this was due to declining demand for workers in Trades & Services and Retail & Consumer Products.

In comparison to last year, there has been little change to ad volumes in Queensland (-1.1% y/y) and South Australia (-2.1% y/y), demonstrating a level of stability not apparent in most of the rest of the country. 

All the largest industries recorded m/m decline in ad volume, led by Trades & Services (-3.6%), Manufacturing Transport & Logistics (-1.7%), and Healthcare & Medical (-1.2%).

Job ads in Retail & Consumer Products fell 8.8% m/m, with large declines in Victoria (-11.3%), South Australia (-10.7%) and New South Wales (-9.6%). Conversely, in Tasmania demand rose 5.7% m/m.  Underlying demand for workers in Retail & Consumer Products is still elevated relative to the rest of the year and is broadly in line with pre-COVID Octobers, although it has fallen from September.

Ad volumes rose in only four industries in October; Advertising Arts & Media (5.0%), Engineering (2.7%), Design & Architecture (1.4%) and Banking & Financial Services (0.2%). As these are relatively small industries, aside from Engineering, it is normal for these job ad volumes to be more volatile.

Competition among candidates grew in some industries in September, with applications per job ad rising in Real Estate & Property (6%), Retail & Consumer Products (4%) and Healthcare & Medical (2%) among other industries. 

The data for this report can be downloaded here. 

ABOUT THE SEEK EMPLOYMENT REPORT

The SEEK Employment Report is Australia’s leading employment index and provides a comprehensive overview of the Australian Employment Marketplace. The report includes the SEEK Employment Index (SEI) which measures only new job ads posted within the reported month to provide a clean measure of demand for labour across all classifications.

NOTES

(1) The SEI may differ to the job ad count on SEEK’s website due to a number of factors including: a) seasonal adjustments applied to the SEI; b) the exclusion of duplicated job ads from the SEI; and c) the exclusion of Company Listings (included under Company Profiles) from the SEI

(2) The Covid-19 pandemic led to a high level of volatility in labour market data between April 2020 and March 2022. As a result, caution is recommended when interpreting trend estimates during this period as large month-to-month changes in variables generated multiple trend breaks

(3) The applications per ad index contains a series break at Jan 2016 when the calculation of this series changed from using gross variables (inclusive of all SEEK job listings) to net variables (removing duplicate job listings). This change has a negligible impact on recent data points, but caution is recommended when interpreting data immediately following the series break, and particularly in 2016 where growth rates have not been adjusted for the series break.

Disclaimer: The Data should be viewed and regarded as standalone information and should not be aggregated with any other information whether such information has been previously provided by SEEK Limited, ("SEEK"). The Data is given in summary form and whilst care has been taken in its preparation, SEEK makes no representations whatsoever about its completeness or accuracy. SEEK expressly bears no responsibility or liability for any reliance placed by you on the Data, or from the use of the Data by you. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately. 

IMAGE CREDIT: Photo by Lex Photography